Boeing 787 Test Priority Shifts to ETOPS

Boeing' s 787 certification focus is shifting from aircraft tests to
qualification for long-range ETOPS at
entry-into-service in the aftermath of
last November' s electrical fire, says Boeing CEO James McNerney. Despite the delays caused by the fire
on ZA002, the 787 program has
completed 75% of the flight testing
required for delivery, but the redesign
of software prompted by the incident
is threatening the timing of Boeing' s ETOPS qualification program. Without
FAA approval for ETOPS at entry-into-
service, early long-range operations
by launch customer All Nippon
Airways (ANA) and others will be
severely limited. Speaking to analysts on a 2010
earnings call, McNerney adds that as
787 flight hours pass the 2,500 flight-
hours mark, qualification testing for
ETOPS at entry-into-service is the
growing priority. " We have a clear view of what we need to do. The FAA
has been working very closely with
us. ETOPS is different this time around
than it was on the 777. The FAA has a
new way of doing it. It used to be
cycle-based and now it is fault-based and condition-based. The question is
what test points are applicable for
each test point, and we have to do it
right." Commenting on development of the
revised power distribution control
software after the 787 electrical fire,
and whether the chances of winning
ETOPS clearance at entry-into-service
have been endangered, McNerney says, " We are in agreement. We have a temporary fix, but we are going to
implement a permanent fix before we
go into ETOPS testing. But there is no
misunderstanding between us [and
the FAA] on what needs to be done,
and on what timing." Overall Assembly Rate Will Continue To
Grow Production of the 787 is holding at
two per month, and Boeing remains
confident the overall assembly rate will
continue to grow to 10 per month by
the end of 2013. McNerney says the
target is achievable but will occur later in the year than originally planned
because of the delivery slide to the -8
into the third quarter of 2011. " We had a very conservative view and a
significant amount of margin in our
production ramp-up plans, and a lot of
that has now been eaten up by the
latest delay. Everything slid to the right
— and that is offset by a contingency we had in 2013." McNerney adds that completion of
recent assemblies into Everett has
been at a " very high" level, suggesting that the company' s supply chain is over the hump on rework levels and
aiming for a smoother ride into the
production ramp-up plan for
2011-2013. On any thoughts of rate
acceleration, McNerney is cautious.
" We' re mindful of the supply chain, and we don' t want to relive the experiences of 1997. " Commenting on the 747-8F program,
McNerney says the stretched freighter
has also passed the 1,700-flight-hour
mark and, at roughly 650 flights, is
about two-thirds of the way through
its test program. With fixes for the aileron vibration and modal
suppression issues discovered last
year now completing flight test,
Boeing remains confident of achieving
first delivery around mid-2011.
Development of the -8I passenger variant, meanwhile, remains on track
for first flight in late March, while both
the first two aircraft have now
achieved ' power-on' in ground tests. CFO James Bell says deliveries for 2011
are expected to cover 485-400
aircraft, and that all positions through
December are " sold out." This includes 25-40 747-8/787s, divided " roughly equally between the two programs." Analysts suggest deliveries of up to 17
747-8s by yearend, meaning that
Boeing could be looking at eight to 23
787 deliveries for the last four months
of 2011.